As the UK experiences snow and freezing temperatures, new Oxford University research reveals NHS England spends around 3% of its primary and secondary care budget, roughly £3 billion, on illnesses linked to extreme temperatures
With snow falling across the UK today and temperatures dropping sharply, a new study from the University of Oxford highlights the hidden toll of weather on healthcare. By linking millions of healthcare records with daily weather data, the study shows how both cold snaps and heatwaves drive demand on GP and hospital services, providing crucial insight for healthcare planning and climate-related policy.
The findings are published in The Lancet Planetary Health.
Exposure to extreme cold and heat costs the NHS billions each year
The researchers used linked patient records from 4,366,981 people registered at 244 English GP practices between April 2007 and June 2019. The researchers estimate that exposure to average daily temperatures outside a mild reference range (18°C to 21°C) accounts for around 3.0% of recorded health-care costs in their dataset.
The researchers believe this could cost NHS England £3 billion.
In the UK, cold conditions (0°C-9°C) account for 64.4% of the estimated burden, reflecting cumulative increases in NHS use across the winter period. The study also raised concerns about the impact of temperatures below 0°C on healthcare use, finding that fewer people seek healthcare during extreme cold spells.
The research also shows that hot weather impacts health. Very hot days were rare during the study period, but the data showed sharp, same-day surges in A&E visits and prescriptions. Cold weather is associated with a greater cumulative burden on the NHS, and heat is associated with sudden spikes that can challenge day-to-day service delivery.
Dr Patrick Fahr, Senior Health Economist at the Nuffield Department of Primary Health Care Sciences, University of Oxford, and a lead author of the study, said: “Temperature affects the NHS every day, but until now nobody knew how costly this was. Three per cent is both a small and a large figure, because these costs are concentrated on cold and hot days only when demand is spiking. Historically, the winter season has been and remains associated with additional health risks, which occur routinely each year; however, heatwaves are emerging as a new challenge.
“In the data, heat tends to be associated with short, same-day increases in demand and pressure on services, requiring a rapid response. Overall, the practical implication is that planning for temperature-related variation in service use is a year-round issue. Vulnerable people, such as older adults, can be particularly at risk.”
Rather than calculating a national budget total, the study estimates what portion of healthcare costs can be attributed to exposure to non-optimal temperatures. For context, if this proportion were applied to NHS England’s planned 2023/24 budget for acute services, specialised services, and primary medical care (a combined £101.4bn), temperature-related costs would amount to around £3 billion per year across these areas.
