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Figure 1: Climate change and the labour share in the U.S. (1950-2019) Note: Hot days are defined as days with an average temperature during working hours exceeding 77oF. Panel (a): County-level exposure to hot days is aggregated at the national level, weighted by county employment in 2000 from the County Business Pattern. The aggregate labour share is taken from the headline figure provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.Panel (b): A scatterplot of the statewide labour share against the prior decade average of hot days per year across the U.S. in 2019. Hot days are the 2010 employment-weighted average of hot days during 2010–2019 across counties. The bubble size captures the denominator of labour share (i.e., GDP) in 2019.

Climate change reduced the labour share in the 21st Century

Masahiro Yoshida, from Waseda University’s Department of Political Science and Economics, presents a new theory and evidence linking climate change to the decline of labour share.
Note: Nationwide LFPR of prime-age (25-54) males is from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nationwide hot days is a five-year prior moving average of the nationwide population-weighted exposure to hot days across counties in the continental United States, computed from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather station records.

Climate change and the rise of adult male dropouts

Masahiro Yoshida from Waseda University’s Department of Political Science and Economics explores the link between global warming and male labor force participation.

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