The Past-to-Future (P2F) project addresses the critical challenge of enhancing our capacity to anticipate future climate change by radically advancing our knowledge of past climatic conditions
As the Earth moves towards climate states not covered by human-made observations, understanding past climate responses to various forcings, particularly abrupt transitions and tipping points, becomes increasingly vital. Current Earth System Models (ESMs) are primarily calibrated using relatively stable instrumental records of the last about 170 years, limiting their ability to accurately simulate potentially exotic future climate states characterized by significant variability and critical transitions.
The overarching ambition of P2F is to develop, expand, and utilize the wealth of paleoclimate data to significantly improve existing ESMs. This involves pioneering methods to directly integrate paleoclimate data into the model development phase, a crucial step towards creating fully paleo-informed models for future projection. By reconstructing past climate evolution and identifying the leading dynamical processes and feedbacks, P2F aims to enhance the ability of ESMs to model and anticipate critical transitions in the climate and ecosystems at relevant spatio-temporal scales.
The key objectives of the P2F project include:
- O1 – Determine key processes and drivers of past climate changes including spatio-temporal variability and abrupt transitions as well as their impact on ecosystems and early societies.
- O2 – Extend the reach of Earth System Models by providing fully paleo-informed models for future projections.
- O3 – Produce a portfolio of plausible future climate change scenarios taking advantage of documented past climate changes and abrupt transitions.
- O4 – Identify and understand tipping points and high-impact/low-likelihood events.
- O5 – Efficiently disseminate research outputs and engage key stakeholders in dialogue to ensure appropriate synergies are attained.
Through these objectives, P2F strives to fundamentally advance our ability to understand and anticipate the main climatic and societal impacts of the ongoing climate crisis, ultimately informing mitigation and adaptation strategies and contributing to a more resilient future. The project will actively engage with stakeholders and ensure open access to its findings, data, and models, fostering a lasting impact on climate science and policy.
