Europe is facing increasingly complex risks created by climate change, geopolitical tensions, and rapid technological development, all of which are combining to create a challenging environment where disasters are more frequent, harder to predict, and often have wide-reaching impacts
A new report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) illustrates how these risks are evolving and outlines measures that can be taken to prepare for them.
One of the main challenges shown in the report is the cross-border nature of many risks. Floods, wildfires, and other natural disasters often affect multiple countries at once, damaging infrastructure, straining emergency services, and impacting entire regions. The air pollution caused by wildfires, for example, can travel far from its source and affect people’s health hundreds of kilometres away, placing added pressure on healthcare systems.
As a result, no single country can effectively address challenges on its own. The report emphasises the importance of coordinated action across national borders, sectors, and disciplines.
Effects and hidden connections
The JRC analysed 47 different risks ranging from natural hazards to technological and geopolitical threats. Their findings reveal that many of these risks are interconnected, with one event often triggering others in a chain reaction. For example, geopolitical instability can contribute to weak governance, which ultimately makes it harder to respond to climate-driven disasters or technological threats.
The risks most likely to trigger cascading effects include geopolitical instability, climate change, environmental degradation, and unplanned urban growth. These drivers not only intensify individual risks but also multiply their impacts by interacting with other vulnerabilities across society.
Building a resilient Europe
To better prepare for today’s challenges and future ones, the report recommends a more coordinated and inclusive approach to risk management. Although a significant amount of data is available across Europe, differences in risk definitions, classifications, and assessment methods have created fragmentation. Instead of treating this diversity as a barrier, the report recommends improving interoperability between systems and harmonising methodologies across the EU.
A key recommendation is the development of a comprehensive EU risk assessment framework that can account for multiple hazards and facilitate cross-border coordination and collaboration. This framework would help governments, institutions, and communities respond more effectively to both crises and long-term threats.
The report also shows the need to invest in foresight and scenario planning. High-impact, low-probability events, such as pandemics, nuclear incidents, and solar storms, may be rare, but their consequences can be enormous. These risks require strategic planning and dedicated resources to ensure Europe is not caught off guard.
In particular, the report emphasises the importance of attention to Earth system tipping points, which are thresholds in the natural environment that, once crossed, could lead to irreversible damage. As global temperatures continue to rise, the likelihood of crossing these tipping points increases. At least five of the sixteen known tipping points could be triggered if temperatures climb more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The JRC’s findings contribute to the broader EU preparedness and resilience strategy, complementing existing frameworks such as the Union Civil Protection Mechanism and the European Climate Adaptation Strategy.
