Dementia cases may surge 42% higher by 2040, alarming study reveals

A UCL-led study has uncovered a potential surge in dementia cases, projecting that by 2040, up to 1.7 million people could be grappling with dementia in England and Wales

This staggering figure is a stark 42% increase from previous estimates

Previous research had suggested a decline in dementia incidence in high-income countries up to 2010.

However, the latest study, published in The Lancet Public Health, unveils a troubling trend: dementia incidence started rising in England and Wales after 2008.

Dementia cases may surge

Initial predictions had indicated a 57% increase in dementia cases in England and Wales by 2040, from 0.77 million in 2016 to 1.2 million. But the new study, funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council, paints a more alarming picture, proposing that the actual figure could be as high as 1.7 million.

Dementia incidence rate decreased

The research analysed data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) from 2002 to 2019, finding that the dementia incidence rate decreased by 28.8% from 2002 to 2008, only to surge 25.2% from 2008 to 2016. This fluctuation was observed across various age groups, genders, and education levels.

Urgent policy challenge

If the observed trend from 2008 to 2016 persists, with a 2.8% annual increase in the incidence rate, the number of dementia cases in England and Wales could double by 2040, reaching 1.7 million, compared to an earlier estimate of one million if the decline had continued.

Dr Yuntao Chen, lead author from UCL, warns of the profound impact this may have on healthcare and social services, emphasising the need for ongoing monitoring and policy adaptation.

Dementia is a more pressing policy

The study’s principal investigator, Professor Eric Brunner, underscores the urgency, stating that dementia is becoming a more pressing policy challenge driven by an ageing population and an increase in dementia cases within older age groups.

He emphasises the need for preparedness and equitable access to support.

In response to these findings, James White, Alzheimer’s Society’s Head of National Influencing, highlights the severity of the dementia issue and the growing pressure on social care systems.

With the prevalence of dementia rising, timely diagnosis and tailored care are paramount to addressing this impending crisis.