Poorer health linked to surge in Reform UK votes, BMJ study indicates

Composite image of Big Ben and the the British Union Jack Flag, Westminster, London.
image: ©John_Lamb | iStock

Poorer health metrics, particularly for respiratory and chronic diseases, are strongly linked to a higher proportion of votes for Reform UK, a BMJ Group study suggests. This surge in reform highlights the critical need for all policymakers to urgently address health inequalities

An analysis of the 2024 UK general election voting patterns in England suggests a significant link between poorer public health metrics and a higher proportion of votes for the populist right-wing party, Reform UK. The findings, published in the peer-reviewed journal BMJ Open Respiratory Research, indicate that policy-makers across the political spectrum need to dramatically increase their focus on tackling entrenched health inequalities.

Health woes and a surge in Reform UK votes

The research, which examined parliamentary data and NHS performance statistics for 20 common health conditions across English constituencies, revealed a clear correlation. Constituencies that elected a Reform UK MP in the 2024 election, securing five seats, were found to have the highest average prevalence for 15 out of the 20 health conditions studied.

For example, these Reform UK-won areas had an average asthma prevalence of 7.5% and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) prevalence of nearly 3%. In comparison, Labour-won areas averaged 7% for asthma and 2% for COPD. The prevalence of coronary heart disease and depression was also notably higher in Reform UK areas compared to Conservative and Liberal Democrat constituencies, respectively.

Moreover, three of the five areas (60%) that returned a Reform UK MP were in the most deprived fifth of the country, a significantly higher proportion than Labour constituencies (30%). These areas also featured the highest proportion of residents over 65, at 24%.

Strong association across the country

Beyond the victorious seats, the analysis demonstrated a consistent, statistically significant association between Reform UK’s overall vote share—which ranged from 0% to 46% across England—and poorer health outcomes.

Even after adjusting for age, sex, and deprivation levels, significant positive associations emerged between Reform UK vote share and the prevalence of 15 out of the 20 conditions. The strongest associations were found for obesity, COPD, and epilepsy. The study calculated that a 10% increase in Reform UK vote share was associated with a +1.5% increase in obesity prevalence. Similar increases were observed for COPD (+0.3%) and asthma and depression (both +0.1%) for every 10% rise in the party’s vote share.

This correlation aligns with international trends, where similar links have been observed between poor health measures and voting for populist parties, such as the Republican party in the USA and the far-right in Italy.

A political call to action

Reform UK’s rise is a threat to our communities, spreading division and pushing far-right ideas. In the 2024 General Election, they garnered 4.1 million votes (14.3% of the total), making it the largest General Election vote share ever for a far-right party in the UK. Their success mirrors the troubling rise of similar far-right movements across Europe.

The researchers suggest that the rise in support for populist parties may, in part, be fuelled by voter frustration with the status quo, exacerbated by the long-term impact of austerity policies and the COVID-19 pandemic on public services and health care access. Conditions like obesity, COPD, and asthma are key indicators of health inequalities, and the researchers note that many people with long-term lung conditions are missing out on basic care, potentially increasing resentment.

The study concludes with a firm message for politicians of all affiliations: these findings are a clear indication that profound health issues exist in constituencies with high Reform UK support. Therefore, these results should serve as a powerful incentive for policy-makers across the political spectrum to step up efforts to improve public health and actively work to reduce deep-seated inequalities. The data makes clear that public health is not merely a social issue, but an increasingly significant factor in the electoral landscape.

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