The Climate-Space-Security Nexus

June 30, 2025

space view of the Earth with cloud formation — Image: ©isil terzioglu iStock

Dr. Christine Nam (GERICS) discusses how climate risks can impact Europe’s burgeoning space sector, which in turn has cascading risks that can impact Europe’s peace and security

When was the last time you thought about a rocket launch? Yesterday? Never? And what does a rocket launch have to do with your peace and security? And where does climate come into this picture?

At first glance, the words climate, space, and security appear disconnected. Yet, as we will show, they are intrinsically intertwined in modern society’s peace and security.

Climate-security and critical infrastructure

A peaceful and safe society is more than the absence of war [1]. It also has a positive state of well-being that supports economic, environmental, political, and judicial stability that allows individuals and societies to flourish [2]. Climate change has the ability to disrupt the peace and security by amplifying inequalities, disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups, increasing competition for resources, triggering social unrest, insecurity, and mass displacement [3].

Climate security, as described by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)[3], refers to the impacts of the climate crisis on peace and security. The impacts of climate change are cross-sectoral, touching upon human health, availability of natural resources, livelihoods and the economy, societal stability, and even foreign policy. Addressing cross-sectoral problems requires a whole-of-government approach to ensure the safe and reliable access to food, water, and other vital services.

In Europe, the European Commission ‘Directive on the Resilience of Critical Entities’ [4], commonly know as the CER directive, aims to ensure reliable access vital services by protecting critical infrastructure and ensuring the operators of critical entities are resilient to natural or man-made disruptions.

The European Commission has identified eleven sectors operating infrastructure which is essential to modern societies, including: water, energy, food, health services, banking and financing services, digital infrastructure, public administration, transportation, and Space.

Climate-risks and space infrastructure

The Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), an institute within the Helmholtz hereon GmbH, has been supporting various critical sectors and governing bodies for over 15 years as they integrate climate change information into practice [5].

Most recently, GERICS scientists, as part of the Horizon Europe SUNRISE consortium [6], engaged in transdisciplianry dialogues with critical infrastructure operators across Europe as they aim to develop implement strategies to ensure resilence during pandemics and times of crisis.

These conversations lead to the realization that all critical infrastructure today, are reliant on space technologies including telecommunication, navigation, and Earth observations. There is an underlying assumption that these services will work without interuption.

The research which followed, identified the space sector as underestimating climate risk, in particular related to Europe’s launch facilities in Kourou, French Guiana [7].

Climate – Space – Security Nexus

The Guiana Space Center is Europe’s main launch site, allowing European nations automous access to space. The Guiana Space Center provides Europe access to different orbits for the deployment of satellites and their replenishment in case of damage or destruction. Without this ability, the space sovereignty of individual European nations is compromized.

This could have cascading effects on downstream users of data, including the Copernicus Security services and European Union Satellite Centre, which provide geo-spatial intelligence to the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (FRONTEX), European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA), and European Union External and Security Actions (SESA) [8].

Given the importance of the Guiana Space Center, it is essential that it periodically undergoes a comprehensive climate risk assessment. Systemic climate risk assessments address changes in frequency, duration, and intensity of hazards using climate projections. They account for an overall changing environment, for example, degrading soil, prolonged exposure to heat stress, sea-level rise, salt-water intrusion, and coastal erosion that traditional hazard-by-hazard risk assessments do not capture. In addition, systemic risk assessments account for compounding and cascading risks.

A need for operationalized Climate Services

To support the European space sector in the face of climate change, GERICS scientists advocate for operationalized climate services. This would include both the regular production of high-resolution climate change projections, similar to weather forecasts, as well as the co-development of sector-specific climate impact indices. Climate services can support managers in prioritizing concerns, managing resources, and ultimately building up resilience in the space sector.