A study on Middle Eastern countries has linked higher temperatures to an increased risk of women’s cancers, including breast, ovarian, uterine, and cervical cancers
Scientists from the American University in Cairo have found that global warming in the Middle East and North Africa is increasing the risk of women’s cancers, making them more common and deadly. The rise in rates is small but statistically significant, suggesting a notable increase in cancer risk and fatalities over time.
“As temperatures rise, cancer mortality among women also rises — particularly for ovarian and breast cancers,” said Dr Wafa Abuelkheir Mataria of the American University in Cairo, first author of the article in Frontiers in Public Health. “Although the increases per degree of temperature rise are modest, their cumulative public health impact is substantial.”
Women are physiologically more vulnerable to climate-related health risks
Rising global temperatures, declining food and water security, and deteriorating air quality all contribute to an increased global burden of disease and mortality. Additionally, natural disasters and the growing frequency of extreme weather events significantly strain critical infrastructure, including healthcare systems. A combination of these risk factors could lead to a significant rise in the incidence of serious cancers, but quantifying it isn’t easy.
To investigate the effects of climate change on women’s cancer risk, the researchers selected a sample of 17 Middle Eastern and North African countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudia Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Palestine. The countries selected are vulnerable to climate change and are experiencing increased temperature rises.
The team collected data on the prevalence and mortality of breast cancer, ovarian cancer, cervical cancer, and uterine cancer and compared this information with changing temperatures between 1998 and 2019.
“Women are physiologically more vulnerable to climate-related health risks, particularly during pregnancy,” said co-author Dr Sungsoo Chun of the American University in Cairo. “This is compounded by inequalities that limit access to healthcare. Marginalised women face a multiplied risk because they are more exposed to environmental hazards and less able to access early screening and treatment services.”
Ovarian and breast cancer rates rise with heat, especially in Gulf nations
The study found that for every 1°C increase in temperature, the prevalence of women’s cancers rose by 173 to 280 cases per 100,000 people. Ovarian cancer showed the most significant increase, while breast cancer showed the smallest. Similarly, cancer-related deaths rose by 171 to 332 per 100,000 people with each degree of warming, again, the most significant increase was seen in ovarian cancer and the smallest in cervical cancer.
When researchers analysed the data by country, they found that cancer rates and deaths increased significantly in just six countries: Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Syria. This may be due to extreme summer heat in those regions or other local factors not captured by the model. The increases weren’t consistent across countries, for example, breast cancer prevalence rose by 560 cases per 100,000 per degree Celsius in Qatar, compared to 330 in Bahrain.
These findings suggest that rising temperatures are likely a risk factor for women’s cancers, but the effect varies by country. This points to the role of additional factors that may influence cancer risk, such as higher levels of carcinogenic air pollution linked to heat in certain areas.
“Temperature rise likely acts through multiple pathways,” said Chun. “It increases exposure to known carcinogens, disrupts healthcare delivery, and may even influence biological processes at the cellular level. Together, these mechanisms could elevate cancer risk over time.”
Advancements needed for screening women’s cancers
An increased prevalence of cancer may also signify advancements in cancer screening methodologies. However, improved screening correlates with a reduction in mortality rates, as early-stage cancers are generally more amenable to effective treatment. The simultaneous rise in both mortality rates and prevalence indicates that the predominant factor influencing these trends is likely the exposure to various risk factors.
“This study cannot establish direct causality,” cautioned Mataria. “While we controlled for GDP per capita, other unmeasured factors could contribute. Nonetheless, the consistent associations observed across multiple countries and cancer types provide compelling grounds for further investigation.”
This research also underlines the importance of considering climate-related risks in public health planning.
“Strengthening cancer screening programs, building climate-resilient health systems, and reducing exposure to environmental carcinogens are key steps,” said Chun. “Without addressing these underlying vulnerabilities, the cancer burden linked to climate change will continue to grow.”
