New research reveals that investment in farm productivity is a key factor in reducing the growth of global greenhouse gas emissions, providing valuable evidence for climate and food policy discussions
The study by Cornell University and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre analyzed global data spanning 1961 to 2021. It found that agricultural productivity gains have decisively slowed the rise of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and related sectors.
“There are environmental goals that you can achieve while increasing productivity,” said first author Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, associate professor in the Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, in the Cornell S.C. Johnson College of Business. “We have to take a harder look at the cheapest, most efficient way of achieving those goals – and what we’ve seen in the past is that increases in productivity have also been the driving force for keeping emissions in check.”
Trends in agricultural production and emissions
Since 1961, global agricultural production and emissions have increased, but productivity has risen by 270% and outpaced emissions, which have risen by 45%. Agriculture and other land uses account for around one-fifth of human-generated greenhouse gas emissions, with reductions needed to slow global warming.
Ortiz-Bobea’s findings have implications for policymakers and the direction of agricultural research and development (R&D) in the U.S. and globally.
“If you look at U.S. agricultural productivity, for instance, we’re starting to see a taper that finds its origins in the stagnation in R&D funding over the past four decades,” said Ortiz-Bobea, who is also a faculty fellow at the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability. “In a world with very limited resources, we need to better think about how we can design an R&D policy where we’re setting clear goals for what we want to achieve. Are we trying to produce more? Are we trying to reduce emissions? Can we do it both ways?”
This study builds on earlier research examining the ‘decoupling’ of agricultural production from greenhouse gas emissions. However, previous studies often did not consider the role of farm inputs or connect their findings to economic measures and concepts.
Technological innovations and emission reductions
Ortiz-Bobea and co-author Simone Pieralli used USDA data on agricultural inputs and production across countries, and emissions data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. They plugged the data into an equation that factored in farms’ inputs and outputs, emissions per unit of input, and output per unit of input to determine what had the greatest impact on emissions.
The analysis reveals that technological improvements boosting land efficiency, such as better fertilizers and seeds, are more effective at lowering emissions than improvements in labor efficiency alone.
While these findings are promising, Ortiz-Bobea noted, “It appears that the direction in which the technology has been changing, at least globally, might actually help decarbonize. But we need another model to really get to the bottom of the trade-offs and to identify an ideal direction for technological change. We don’t know exactly, but we wanted to put our finger on the different directions policies can push.”
Ortiz-Bobea said the study is part of a shift in his work toward research that can inform policy, especially in innovation and technology in the ag sector.
“We want to reduce emissions, we want to increase output – we have these multiple balls in the air, but how do we weigh them?” Ortiz-Bobea said. “And at this juncture, we don’t want to take our eyes off any single ball.”
