Australia may need to brace for megadroughts lasting over 20 years

According to research from the Australian National University (ANU) and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australia faces the alarming threat of megadroughts that last more than two decades

The study by Dr Georgy Falster from the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences shows Australia’s future potential devastation by prolonged, severe droughts.

What are megadroughts?

These megadroughts, characterised by their severity and longevity, could exceed anything experienced in recent history.

Rising temperatures worsen drought conditions, making the impact even more severe. Dr Falster warned that if a megadrought occurred in Australia today, the consequences would be extreme due to the backdrop of hotter weather caused by climate change.

Climate change causing worsening conditions

The research team focused on the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia’s largest agricultural region, to assess the potential severity of future droughts. Their findings highlight the urgent need for preparation and mitigation strategies.

Professor Nerilie Abram, co-author of the study, stresses the connection between human-caused climate change and longer droughts in key regions like southwestern and eastern Australia. These areas are also expected to experience rainfall declines, further heightening the risk of drought.

The study’s analysis reveals the possibility of megadroughts lasting over 20 years, far exceeding any droughts experienced in recent years. Dr. Falster highlights the unpredictability of these events, stating, “Droughts that continue for 20 years or more are something that we should expect to happen.”

The research also compares droughts in the 20th century with pre-industrial periods, revealing the impact of human activities on drought severity and duration. “Changes to drought intensity could still arise as climate change continues to worsen,” warns Professor Abram.

What can be done to help prevent megadroughts?

A megadrought’s potential severity and length could be severe, and action needs to be taken to resolve the issue.

Rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources are critical steps, according to Professor Abram. Proactive water storage and management plans, along with robust community support networks, can also help alleviate the impact of droughts.