Current CO2 removal plans will not meet Paris Agreement goals

A recent study led by the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) in collaboration with the University of East Anglia (UEA) has raised concern over the lack of current plans to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere

The findings, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, highlight a significant gap between countries’ climate protection pledges and what is required to limit global warming to 1.5 ºC, as outlined in the Paris Agreement.

More is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goal 

Lead author Dr. William Lamb emphasised the critical role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods in climate action. While these methods are essential for achieving net-zero emissions and mitigating climate change impacts, the study shows the reality that current efforts fall short of what is needed.

Dr. Naomi Vaughan, the co-author from UEA’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, emphasised the importance of heightened awareness and ambition in scaling up CDR methods alongside deep emissions reductions. 

According to the study, even if national targets are fully implemented, annual human-induced carbon removals would only increase by 2030 and 2050.

Carbon removals: Rapid reduction in emissions needed

The research team’s analysis shows that the required increase in carbon removals is far greater than what is currently being projected. For example, a ‘focus scenario’ set with the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report needs a 5.1 gigatonne increase by 2050, significantly higher than the anticipated 1.9 gigatonne rise under current plans.

Sustainability concerns threaten the scalability of carbon removals, with potential implications for biodiversity and food security. Despite these challenges, the study shows the importance of designing fair and sustainable land management policies to address these issues.

The is also a need for greater promotion of new carbon removal options, such as air filter systems and enhanced rock weathering, which have been largely overlooked. These methods currently contribute minimally to carbon removal compared to traditional options like afforestation.

The study’s conclusions show the urgency of accelerating emissions reductions across all sectors to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 ºC target. Dr. Lamb emphasised that without rapid reductions in emissions towards zero, meeting this goal remains unattainable.