Flexible demand: Unlocking the energy transition

Dr Irene Di Martino from Amp X explores the global approaches to the energy transition and mass-market flexibility

Amp X are active in several markets worldwide. Their innovative digital energy platform uses a unique, whole-system approach to address critical issues in the electricity grid which result from the ongoing net zero energy transition.

The energy transition background

The EU’s climate monitoring service recently announced that global warming had exceeded 1.5°C for the first time in the entire year. At a time of high energy prices, when several governments are, tacitly or explicitly, reconsidering their decarbonisation policy, the three competing priorities of the energy trilemma – sustainability, security and affordability – seem no closer to resolution.

The ongoing crises in the Middle East and Ukraine have created concerns around energy supply security, resulting in high prices and provoking several political responses. The UK Government, for example, is issuing hundreds of new North Sea oil and gas licences and has watered-down targets for the decarbonisation of transport and heating.

Security of energy supply is only part of the story

Securing supplies is one side of the supply-demand equation, and oil and gas represent only a part of that. The electricity supply from renewable energy sources (RES) has seen a massive expansion since the 2015 Paris Agreement, which sought to keep global warming below the 1.5°C reached last year.

In California, between 2012 and 2022, output from utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) generation increased by almost 1800%, and wind generation increased by 63%. 2014 RES constituted 10.5% of the UK’s generated electricity; in 2023, they reached 39.5%. Since 2022, markets as diverse as Scotland and South Australia have seen periods where RES produced more than 100% of the market’s total electricity demand.

System security needs supply and demand flexibility

But RES are not regarded as secure because they are not dispatchable – their output depends on the weather. Their overall production might equal (or exceed) demand, but that production doesn’t necessarily coincide with when or where the power is needed. The challenge lies not just in producing sufficient clean energy, but in how it is delivered and consumed.

Flexibility is the system’s ability to respond to changes in supply and demand – this could increasingly mean more diverse solutions such as short- term demand shifting, longer-term energy storage, or more strategic use of distributed energy resources at the grid edge.

Historically, system flexibility came mainly from the supply side – fossil- fuelled generators flexing output according to changing demand patterns. As the nature of energy supply changes towards non- dispatchable resources like renewable and nuclear, so must our sources of flexibility.

Power system operators still often default to supply-side flexibility, paying RES to stop generating where the grid is overloaded. Consumers meet the costs of curtailing RES and turning up fossil-fuelled generation.

These mounting curtailment costs feed into network company justifications to build more infrastructure, the cost of which is also borne by consumers.

Risk should sit with the party best able to manage it, but currently the consumer is exposed to all the cost risk with almost no capability to manage it.

The energy transition: What is needed?

Amp X’s experience in various global markets has highlighted three key elements to unlocking mass-market flexibility in the energy transition:

1- Designing flexibility into network planning and operation: distribution networks are the least visible and least responsive part of the system, creating significant problems as distributed resources (EV chargers, rooftop PV, heat pumps, etc.) become more prevalent, and offer potential sources of system stability.

Digitalisation to gather data and use of software solutions powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to manage issues can maintain stability and identify where existing capacity could be more efficiently used.

2- Market signals to incentivise flexibility and investment: transparent and accurate data about real-time electricity costs and the value of flexibility constitute a significant enabler of market participation. The U.S. State of Maine is working with utilities and regulators to design time-of-use tariffs to incentivise users to reduce consumption at the busiest times, improving system stability and minimising costly grid reinforcements. A widespread roll-out of this approach, with appropriate consumer safeguards, would help unlock flexibility at a massive scale. The UK Government’s Smart Systems and Flexibility Plan estimated that flexibility could save £10 billion per year in energy costs by 2050, and reduce the UK’s total net zero costs by £70 billion.

3- Technological delivery of flexibility: Consumers cannot be expected to participate manually in delivering flexibility. Automated and autonomous solutions underpinned by AI and ML should provide responses to market signals and calls for flexibility, controlling assets whilst adhering to user instructions and preferences – maximising flexibility, minimising costs, and removing inconvenience.

What are Amp X’s energy solutions?

Amp X’s cloud-hosted data platform – the Asset Management Platform (A.M.P.) – gathers system data and actively manages assets to deliver cost-effective solutions to asset owners, network operators, energy retailers, and consumers.

Asset Management Platform

The A.M.P. underpins Amp X’s portfolio of offerings, including smart transformers and a consumer-centric energy management system. The cloud-based platform monitors, controls and optimises diverse energy assets, such as battery storage, smart transformers, and home appliances.

It maximises users’ revenue through optimised asset dispatch and maintenance, providing grid flexibility and accelerating whole-system decarbonisation.

STX© Smart Transformer

A cost-effective, future-proof upgrade, STX replaces conventional distribution transformers. It autonomously resolves voltage instabilities and network constraints, maximising penetration of consumer energy resources while providing increased visibility of system conditions. It also optimises existing grid capacity, accelerating connection times for DERs and optimising infrastructure build.

Dynamic Load Shaping with ALICE

Amp X’s digital energy assistant for dynamic load shaping (DLS), Alice (Agent for Lifestyle-based Intelligent Control of Energy), autonomously manages home energy consumption based on users’ consumption patterns and preferences. The single, user-centric interface simplifies home ecosystems and optimises the management of home energy assets (PVs, storage, EVs, etc.) to reduce energy bills and carbon footprint.

Alice delivers fully automated Demand Response, unlocking the untapped potential of grid-edge flexibility, facilitating and enhancing market participation and innovative business models through tariff customisation and other value-adding services.