Is this the end for ice roads and ice road truckers?

Ice roads vital for transportation in remote communities may be cracking and sinking under the unseasonably warm weather; is this the end for ice road truckers?

Ice roads could well be cracking and sinking due to the unusually warm start to the new year across Europe and North America, a trend York University Associate Professor Sapna Sharma and team have detailed in a recent study.

Research from the University of York warns that ice roads used for essential transportation such as moving people, food, medicine and fuel in remote northern communities, as well as heavy machinery used by industry, may become unsustainable as the climate warms.

Will ice road truckers become a thing of the past?

Sharma, a freshwater expert in York’s Faculty of Science, asks: Will ice road truckers become a thing of the past?

Sharma believes this will depend on the thickness of ice needed to support the truck and its load.

Naturally, vehicles vary, so whilst snowmobiles, pick-up trucks and skiers may be able to cope, pick-up trucks and skiers transport trucks in northern Canada, the United States, Russia and Sweden may encounter difficulties and find the ice cracking beneath them.

“This balmy weather could have significant impacts on northern communities who rely on those roads and ice for their existence. These communities will be most impacted by our projected change in the duration and thickness of lake ice,” states Sharma.

“It would also affect recreational uses, even in more southerly areas. Our warming world is creating conditions where the duration of lake ice is shortening at alarming rates, and even if those lakes still freeze, the ice may not be thick enough for safe use.”

Transport trucks need ice roads to be at least one metre thick

The study’s authors monitored daily lake data from an ensemble of climate model simulations conducted with a state-of-the-art Earth system model. They studied how the safety of lake ice is changing across the Northern Hemisphere.

“For these trucks our research shows that the number of days of safe ice will decline by 90 per cent with an increase of 1.5 C of global warming. That moves to 95 per cent with a 2 C increase and 99 per cent with a 3 C global temperature hike,” exlains Woolway.

Regarding recreation, the researchers looked at how the winter activity season could be affected. They found safe ice for recreational purposes could decrease by 13, 17 and 24 days with the same 1.5 C, 2 C and 3 C of warming projections, respectively.

To hold the weight of a human, the ice must be at least 10 cm thick. However, it is worth noting that previous research by Sharma and their team has actually shown an increase in drownings through winter lake ice affected by warming winters.

The study’s authors have projected that the most densely populated regions across the Northern Hemisphere will experience the greatest loss of safe lake ice, posing serious issues for ice road truckers.

“There is a real need for the development and implementation of adaptation plans to address the imminent loss of critical winter ice roads and transportation infrastructure across the Northern Hemisphere,” says Sharma.