According to modelling work from the Health Foundation charity, the NHS waiting lists may exceed eight million by next summer, even if doctor strikes stop
Industrial action has had a limited impact on the waiting lists, with an approximate addition of 210,000 patients or 3% to the total of 7.75 million on the waiting list by August.
Impact of ongoing strikes on healthcare services
The primary factors behind this issue are chronic shortages of NHS personnel and funding. NHS England reports that over one million appointments and procedures have been rescheduled due to NHS strikes by nurses and other healthcare workers seeking improved wages, including those in England.
Doctors are set to discuss a potential strike with the government. Concerning the junior doctor strike, there is a record of a night shift in the form of a diary.
Examining potential scenarios and solutions
The modelling is not a definitive prediction or projection but serves as an effort to comprehend the state of waiting lists for patients. It posits two scenarios:
- In a worst-case scenario, should strike action persist and hospital activity growth remain a third lower than current trends at 5.2% annually, the waiting list could continue to expand, reaching 8.4 million by the conclusion of 2024.
- If strike action stop and the rate of hospital activity growth increases by a third to 10.4%, the waiting list may peak in October 2023 and subsequently decline to below 7.2 million by the end of 2024.
Returning back to pre-pandemic levels
NHS England and the Health Foundation acknowledge that the NHS has intensified its efforts to accommodate more patients and reduce the backlog. Monthly referrals for treatment have now returned to pre-pandemic levels and are increasing quickly, which is a positive development. However, the waiting list continues to grow because the number of treatments provided has yet to surpass the number of new referrals.
Patients are awaiting various treatments, spanning from hip replacements to surgeries aimed at removing cancerous tumours. The NHS is still experiencing substantial levels of demand.
The impact of industrial strikes
Due to increased waiting times, the Government has called an end to industrial strikes.
Various healthcare professionals, such as nurses, radiographers, ambulance drivers, and medical practitioners, have been participating in strikes since December 2022, disrupting over one million appointments.
The strikes intensified last month when junior doctors and consultants engaged in joint strike action for the first time, followed by three days of coordinated action in early October.
